Is there a housing shortage in the US? | Will a recession impact the mortgage rate?

Is there or is there not a housing shortage in the US? With home prices going down and fewer people buying homes, how does it make sense that there is a housing shortage? Let's talk about housing and some numbers so we can see what's going on there. 

As far as the mortgage rate goes, what can we anticipate to happen when we hit a recession in the US? Will rates go higher and if so how high will they go? Let's use some data and also check what typically happens in the past when it comes to a recession and real estate. 

NPR Article on housing shortages in the United States. 
https://www.npr.org/2022/07/14/1109345201/theres-a-massive-housing-shortage-across-the-u-s-heres-how-bad-it-is-where-you-l

Wall Street Journal Article on Why Mortgage Rates fall during a recession. 
https://www.wsj.com/articles/mortgage-rates-fall-to-5-30-reflecting-recession-fears-11657202418

Investopedia on recession and mortgage rates. 
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/102015/do-interest-rates-increase-during-recession.asp

Dave Ramsey talking about a housing shortage and the housing crash. Minute 13:19
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fORUvZNm3oo&t=1347s

NAR stats on housing inventory. Including active homes on the MLS and new construction
https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/ehs-05-2022-overview-2022-06-21.pdf

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